Israel's Continued Bombing of Southern Lebanon: A Strategic Dilemma for Hezbollah
Israel's persistent airstrikes on southern Lebanon, including today's intense bombing of areas like Ali al-Taher, the Kfartabneet Heights, Nabatieh al-Fouqa, and Jabal Shaqif, despite months of ceasefire, reveal one of the most perplexing moments in Hezbollah's trajectory since its founding. The silence enveloping the party is not just a tactical choice, but a strategic enigma that warrants analysis on two levels: Is the party betting that the "quiet" will be met with Israeli restraint? Or is this the true result of a dismantling of deterrent capabilities, turning the party into little more than a punching bag in an open arena? First: The "Misjudgment" Ambush The first scenario assumes that Hezbollah consciously chose calm, thinking that absorbing blows would curb Israel's appetite. The belief was that the more they withdrew, the more Israel would quiet down. However, this wager on the "rationality" of the adversary appears to be losing....
