Israel's Continued Bombing of Southern Lebanon: A Strategic Dilemma for Hezbollah

Israel's persistent airstrikes on southern Lebanon, including today's intense bombing of areas like Ali al-Taher, the Kfartabneet Heights, Nabatieh al-Fouqa, and Jabal Shaqif, despite months of ceasefire, reveal one of the most perplexing moments in Hezbollah's trajectory since its founding. The silence enveloping the party is not just a tactical choice, but a strategic enigma that warrants analysis on two levels:

Is the party betting that the "quiet" will be met with Israeli restraint? Or is this the true result of a dismantling of deterrent capabilities, turning the party into little more than a punching bag in an open arena?

First: The "Misjudgment" Ambush

The first scenario assumes that Hezbollah consciously chose calm, thinking that absorbing blows would curb Israel's appetite. The belief was that the more they withdrew, the more Israel would quiet down. However, this wager on the "rationality" of the adversary appears to be losing.

Israel reads this restraint as weakness and exploits it with all available air power, surveillance, and precision munitions. From March to June, Israel carried out more than 900 strikes, some targeting supposed drone storage sites underground, and others aimed at supply routes and quality missiles Hezbollah was trying to conceal.

Simply put, Israel does not see this period of calm as a chance for withdrawal but as a rare opportunity to settle scores.

Second: The Depletion of Capabilities Hypothesis

The second hypothesis takes it further: Hezbollah may simply no longer have the ability to respond after sustaining a blow that crippled its deterrent infrastructure. The assassination of Nasrallah removed the leadership's head, and targeting military cadres and engineers stripped the group of its technical capacity. With the dismantling of underground facilities, control centers, and supply lines, Hezbollah now receives blows as though it were in an unmanned drone state.

However, this hypothesis doesn’t hold water easily. Why? Because Israel is still discovering and destroying munitions storage sites and sophisticated platforms, some reportedly at a strategic level. This means that Hezbollah's material capability has not been fully wiped out but rather suspended. This brings us back to the first hypothesis — it appears as though Hezbollah has deliberately chosen not to use what remains of its assets in a moment it perceives as unsuitable.

Hezbollah Between "Does Not Want" and "Cannot"

Today, Hezbollah is trapped between two denials: it does not want to respond because it believes the conditions are not in its favor, and it cannot respond because internal and external calculations are binding it. The result: exposure. The strikes repeat, equations are broken, and the scene suggests that Hezbollah has moved from a moment of deterrence to one of receiving.

In simpler terms: Hezbollah has become a punching bag, not because it lacks muscle, but because it is unable to use its strength without risking an explosion it cannot control.

The Election Card: Administrative Victory... Symbolic Loss

While Hezbollah has not been politically defeated, it did maintain most of its positions in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in the recent municipal elections (May 2025), with some gains in Mount Lebanon. Yet, the general mood has shifted. The voices that once cheered for the resistance now whisper, "Where is the resistance now?"

The people have not turned against the party, but they no longer view it the way they once did. Hezbollah no longer knows how to restore its image without losing itself in the process.

Future Scenarios:

1. Silent Attrition

   Hezbollah continues in a state of "delayed deterrence" until a more favorable regional moment arises (an explosion on the Iranian front, changes in Gaza, etc.).

2. Calculated Symbolic Response

   Launching a missile, drone, or tactical operations to restore only symbolic balance, with the consequences of such actions fully acknowledged.

3. Shifting the Battle Outside Lebanon

   Supporting strikes against Israeli interests outside Lebanon. This is a strategy Hezbollah has used before, but it opens up new fronts of enmity in different places.

4. Internal Explosion

   If strikes continue without response, voices within the Shiite community itself may start questioning the efficacy of this silence.

Conclusion

The "quiet" may be a tactic, but if prolonged, it becomes a symbolic defeat. Hezbollah, which built its history on the principle of "strike to respond," now faces an inverse equation: "remain silent to protect what remains."

But for how long can a punching bag endure blows... without collapsing?