The shifts in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime present neighboring countries with critical decisions on how to navigate the new realities. While some nations are seizing the chance to engage and shape the future, Egypt has chosen a more cautious, even isolationist path. But does this approach signal a calculated strategy, or is it merely a reflection of deep-seated fears and reactive policies?
Egyptian Reactions to Syrian Transition
The Egyptian authorities have issued new instructions to prevent Syrians from entering the country. This decision comes almost two weeks after Syrians with European, American, and Canadian residency were banned from entering Egypt without prior security approval. Entry of Schengen visa holders, as well as Syrians married to Egyptians, has also been banned unless security clearance is obtained.
Egypt is acting nervously toward Syria without devising an influence strategy. There is no political reason to punish the Syrian people for defeating the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Bashar's regime was a rotting corpse leaning on Suleiman's stick, falling as soon as his stick was eroded.
However, Egypt is expanding its apprehension of the new Syrian regime and acting according to a ruling trauma of Islamists anywhere. This trauma includes the Syrian people themselves, not just their new rulers.
International Outreach to Post-Asad Syria
Contrary to Egypt's apprehensive position, the world is trying to open channels of communication and exploit the openness of the new rulers to influence the development paths in Syria.
On January 3, 2025, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Damascus accompanied by her French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot, marking the first visit of Western officials at this level to Syria.
During their visit, the importance of international cooperation in supporting Syria's political transition was emphasized. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot highlighted France and the European Union's commitment to providing technical expertise to assist the Syrian people in drafting a new constitution.
This approach reflects a pragmatic and constructive strategy, prioritizing cooperation and engagement over confrontation, estrangement, or hostility. However, Egypt appears reluctant to adopt or fully understand such a strategy, despite its vested interests in maintaining closer ties with Syria.
Egypt’s Strained Policies on Post-Assad Syria
Official Egypt seems angrier than expected, isolating itself in western Libya for the same reason: the anti-Islamist trauma, where the security approach takes precedence over political engagement.
Egypt's official actions, which have also isolated it from the new Syria without any attempt at rapprochement other than a protocol call from the Egyptian foreign minister to his Syrian counterpart, appear to be those of an angry person without a plan, carrying out aggressive defensive actions with no political goal. These actions are based on the almost impossible premise that change in Syria will lead to an attempt to influence the course of events in Egypt.
According to this hypothesis, every Syrian who enters Egypt is a potential promoter of the Egyptian regime's nightmarish Syrian path. This is an illogical possibility, as the paths of change in the two countries are different, and the geography of anger and revolution differs in both contexts.
Formulating Alternative Policies
Egypt's policies toward Syria reflect a lack of direction and vision, rendering them ineffective and resulting in stagnation. This approach has failed to yield any meaningful influence or cooperation. Cairo should, therefore, explore more strategic and effective alternatives, rather than relying solely on anger and reactionary responses.
Stop Punishing Syrians
Egypt should refrain from punishing the Syrian people out of apprehension toward the leaders of the new Syria. The Syrian population cannot be held accountable for the decay of their former regime. However, official Egypt seems unwilling to acknowledge this reality, as doing so would necessitate significant changes in the state's approach to its relationship with its citizens.
Political Rapprochement
Egypt should also seek political engagement and address the new realities in Syria as a fait accompli. Syria remains a strategically significant country for Egypt, and change—regardless of whether it aligns with the Egyptian regime's preferences—presents opportunities for collaboration between the two nations.
Instead of hostility and apprehension, Egypt should adopt a strategy of dialogue aimed at understanding the intentions of Syria's new leadership and influencing their direction. Formulating alternative policies to navigate these changes is crucial, moving away from reactive, anger-driven responses that reflect a crisis of vision rather than a coherent and strategic political approach.
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