Hope: A Double-Edged Sword
With every radical change in power, there are high expectations among people for a better life quickly. However, these expectations could turn into disappointment if they are not met swiftly, reinforcing human nostalgia that seems more romantic once it turns into the past, even if it is the Assad family's past. In the Syrian case, high hope faces a severe test, especially with everyone's expectations of achieving the model of governance they seek.
Challenges of Transition in Syria
The challenges of transition in Syria appear complex, but some of them can be summarized as follows:
Fragmentation of Power and the Difficulty of Monopolizing Legitimate Violence
One of the most serious challenges in a transitional Syria is the fragmentation of power among armed groups. With the fall of the regime, many of these groups claim their role in governance, creating a power struggle. Recent clashes with pro-regime militias clearly highlight this challenge. The new state must act quickly to establish its control and monopolize legitimate violence by establishing a comprehensive framework for disarmament and restructuring of the armed forces.
Integration of the Kurds in the North
In northern Syria, clashes between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and pro-Turkish armed factions continue. These clashes could turn into longer confrontations if both the new government and Turkey are unable to reach an agreement that guarantees the integration of the Kurds into the new political process. Turkey, the new government's most important ally, does not seem willing to make concessions in this direction.
Remnants of the Syrian Regime
Angry or fearful sectarian or ideological militias that are still armed have emerged, leading to clashes. Clashes erupted between security forces managing military operations for the new rulers and pro-regime militias, resulting in 14 deaths and a tight security cordon.
ISIS's Dilemma
There are also aspirations for other forces to the right of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, such as ISIS, to rearm and recreate the threat. Through its magazine Al-Nabaa, the organization declared its rejection of the current authority and its intention to confront it.
ISIS activity was monitored after Assad's fall, according to the Syrian Observatory, which reported that "since the escape of the head of the regime on December 8, ISIS has launched 6 attacks, killing 70 people, including civilians and military personnel." The group executed 52 Syrian military personnel who fled after the fall of the regime, reminiscent of the horror scenes spread by the group during its expansion between 2014 and 2020.
Integrating Factions into the New Syrian Army: A Solution or a New Problem?
The new authority responded to this challenge by announcing the merger of factions fighting the Assad regime under the Ministry of Defense. On December 21, Ahmed al-Shara announced the merger of the factions that fought Assad under the banner of the new Ministry of Defense, led by engineer Marhaf Abu Qusra, who previously served as commander-in-chief of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's military wing and was appointed as defense minister in the transitional government.
Al-Sharaa's announcement came after a seemingly cordial meeting with the leaders of those factions. However, it is expected that this merger will not have easily facilitated the meeting that took place in Damascus, in light of previous bloody differences between the parties pledging to merge, such as the dispute between Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, from which al-Shara'a came, his defense minister and most of his government, and the organization of what is known as Jaysh al-Islam. A dispute over the degree of application of sharia, a classic dispute among Salafi Islamists that often leads to the bombing and fighting of their organizations, is likely to emerge among these factions when the moment comes when the regime that will govern the country is established.
To what extent will the state succeed in overcoming the fragmentation of power? This is what the tests of strength that developments will impose on it will answer.
The Repressive Legacy and the Grievances of the Past
The repressive legacy of the former Syrian regime is challenging. The security services that the regime has run for many years are a ticking time bomb. Recent security campaigns targeting prominent figures from the former regime are a step in the right direction, but they need to be part of an inclusive transitional justice system that addresses past grievances and ensures reparations for victims. Nor should it release counter-energies of revenge. Scenes of abuse of those arrested or calls for revenge, not justice, may have swayed larger blocs against the new regime and against any attempt to restore peace in the country.
The old authority used to abuse its opponents without opening a door to integrate them into the system, which is what it blocked against them. The new authorities should learn their lesson well and adopt a method that ensures the punishment of major criminals and integrates the largest number of regime members into a framework that ensures a balance between justice, tolerance, and law enforcement. Unlocking the irrational energies of revenge may destroy the country and put it in an endless cycle of violence.
Protecting Minority Rights and Ensuring Participation
Protecting Religious and Ethnic Minorities in Syria
Syria's religious and ethnic minorities have expressed concern about future marginalization. This concern was evident in demonstrations demanding that their rights be guaranteed. Despite the new leadership's assurances that minority rights would be guaranteed, protests erupted among Christians after a video of men setting fire to a publicly displayed Christmas tree in the predominantly Christian town of al-Suqaylabiya, near the city of Hama, leaked.
It turned out that the tree was burned by foreign fighters belonging to the Ansar al-Tawhid faction. This indicates that the government's promises (even if they are true) may clash with the liquidity state of Salafi-jihadism, the umbrella ideology to which most of the new rulers belong. It is an ideology based on the bond of ideological rather than national affiliation. Foreign fighters with a militant Salafism may be a difficult problem to solve if this mine is not carefully dismantled.
Complaints of Systematic Violence
Complaints of systematic violence against members of the sect by the new government and Salafi circles close to it have also risen on social media platforms and websites close to Syria's Alawite minority. Some of these complaints overlap, perhaps deliberately, with political and sectarian dimensions, as some of those targeted were involved in the previous government's campaigns to liquidate the opposition and abuse them on political and sectarian grounds. For instance, One of these targets was Shuja al-Ali responsible for the massacre in the town of Taldou in the Houla region (the Houla massacre), in which more than a hundred victims, most of them children, were killed. He is also implicated in killings, kidnappings and torture on behalf of the Assad regime. He also appeared in a video inciting sectarian incitement and threatening to burn mosques in retaliation for the burning of an Alawite shrine after Assad's fall.
Integration of Political Minorities
It is not only religious minorities that must be integrated into the new state, but political minorities that ideologically disagree with the regime. But statements by regime figures rejecting the civil state and emphasizing the primacy of Sharia (still cloudy and open to interpretation) may signal an undemocratic and non-inclusive transition. The fears of political minorities that support secular civil rule were renewed after statements by Aisha al-Debs, head of women's affairs in the new government, in which she denounced the adoption of the model of "secular or civil" and called for the adoption of Islamic law without clarifying what is meant by its concept of Sharia. This indicates intentions to build a system with perceptions that do not guarantee that the interests of all are represented.
The Danger of Ideology: Dogma or Democracy?
In major political transformations, there are two ways to build a new system instead of the collapsed one. The first is to build a system that guarantees the rules of democratic competition without imposing a final and eternal vision on the way society, economy, and market are managed, leaving this to the choices of peaceful political competition. This is what we might call democratic transitions that are primarily aimed at changing the rules for exercising power, distributing power, ensuring continuous peaceful competition between ideas, parties, and policies, and ensuring the inclusion of stakeholders in the political process.
There is a transition based on a closed vision that imposes a specific form of order on society, the market, and economic activity as the ideal form of an ideal society, which I call dogmatic transformation based on one obligatory path of change. Such as the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia and the Khomeini Revolution in Iran.
The transition in Syria so far appears to be of the second type. This makes the regime, even if the power is more distributed, but it seeks to concentrate power in another way and seeks to establish a closed dogmatic system that is not open democracy.
The imposition of a specific ideological vision, such as national or religious dogma, may lead to the failure of transitional periods or the production of alternative authoritarianism. After the formation of a homogeneous government, but with no sign of pluralism, fears of the exclusionary tendencies of the new rulers mounted. These fears were compounded after the disclosure of previous positions closer to the ideological and political militancy of the symbols of this government.
For example, a 19-page pamphlet by Anas Khattab, the head of the intelligence service in the new government, entitled "The Servants of the Cross Against the Mujahideen of the Levant," was unveiled, a book that, in contrast to its hostile takfiri language, raises the concerns of countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, which have been described as part of this so-called alliance.
Ahmed al-Shara's statements about the commitment to stability and ensuring representation of all in the transitional process are good at the level of words and words, but they are now being tested in practice and will be subjected to more difficult tests with the entitlements of the constitution, elections, and the establishment of the new system.
Unlike other Salafi models, Ahmed al-Sharaa is characterized by political flexibility and realism necessary for the world of politics, but this realism will be the subject of the test of governance and is very different from the test of the militia and the opposition.
If the transition is not managed with a comprehensive vision that respects pluralism, slogans could turn into a dangerous political vacuum, or Syria could become a rallying point for more dangerous jihadist movements.
External Threats and Regional Conflict of Interests
External interventions further complicate the Syrian scene. Iran has not denied its destructive intentions towards the new Syria. Iran ignited the sectarian dimension of the conflict with Syria's new rulers in an attempt to restore the sectarian alliance it was leading against the Syrian opposition. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared: "The battle between the Husseiniya front and the Yazidi front is still going on and will not end," describing Sunni opponents as followers of Yazid, Hussein's enemy and murderer.
Escalating Iranian Threats
Iranian threats escalated after Ali Khamenei predicted the emergence of a "group of honorable people" in Syria to extract from its new rulers. Mohsen Rezaei, a member of Iran's Expediency Council, formulated the same threats more clearly, stating that "the Syrian youth and people will not remain silent in the face of foreign occupation, aggression, and the internal totalitarianism of a group." He added, "In less than a year, they will revive the resistance in Syria."
Iran and Israel's Unlikely Agreement
Curiously, Iran and Israel agreed to harass the new Syrian government. After Israel expanded the occupied area in Syria and crossed the line of fire to reach the countryside of Daraa with a series of raids on Syrian military sites and the Syrian fleet, neutralizing Syrian military capabilities for years to come.
UAE's Aggressive Stance
The UAE is re-emerging as an actor who invests more in aggressiveness than in diplomacy. Nadim Qutaish, head of Sky News Arabia and close to the decision-making mind in Abu Dhabi, stated that the UAE would not allow the "Sunni structure of governance" to repeat the experience of Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. With such undiplomatic and hostile language, the UAE has painted itself as an adversary of Syria's new rulers without attempting rapprochement.
Egypt's Skepticism
Egypt shares the UAE's skepticism of the new rulers. This skepticism stems from the "Islamist complex" with which the ruling regime in Cairo inaugurated its legitimacy. However, Egypt's ability to influence Syria's trajectories is still limited by the decline of its active regional role due to growing economic problems, making it more isolated in regional political action.
Building Balanced Relations
Building balanced relations with neighbors without allowing interference in internal affairs will be a major challenge for the new state. But the biggest challenge is to rein in Salafi-jihadi currents in the new regime's coalition. The new Syria must curb desires to export cross-border jihad, a significant challenge given the nature of Salafi-jihadi ideology that does not recognize the nation-state.
The Road to Safety: An Inclusive Democratic State
Building a Democratic State in Syria
The best solution for Syria lies in building a democratic state that guarantees:
Democracy of Government: Based on the will of voters to choose between competing policies to improve their lives.
Individuality of Rights: Individual rights are safeguarded without derogation. The majority cannot attack the rights of the minority under any pretext.
Universality of Rights: Guarantees equality for all citizens, ensuring that all rights are for all people regardless of sect and political position.
This state must be able to monopolize legitimate violence and ensure transitional justice in a way that promotes reconciliation and coexistence.
History Lessons in the Syrian Transition
Exclusionary slogans, whether in the name of religion or nationalism, have proven to be a failure in achieving stability. The experiments of dogmatic rule have failed in all their manifestations. Syria can move beyond its repressive history and dark past under the Assad family, provided its new rulers read the lessons of history well if they want to avoid repeating them.
Keywords: Syria News, Syria's Transition, Security Forces Clashes, Minority Rights in Syria, Regional Challenges in Syria, Former Syrian regime, Restructuring the security services, Transitional Justice, Syrian minority demonstrations, Iran's Influence in Syria.
Published originally on Cosmopolitan in Arabic
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