Ahmed Al-Shara: The Transformation of "Al-Julani" and the Evolution of Salafi Jihadism

December 24, 2024

While al-Qaeda and ISIS crumbled under internal strife and extreme militancy, Ahmed Al-Shara, known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, emerged as a figure who redefined Salafi jihadism through political pragmatism. His journey from an ISIS commander to the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) marks the rise of a more adaptable and politically driven jihadist model.

The Rise of Al-Julani: From ISIS to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham

Born in 1982 in Saudi Arabia and raised in Damascus, Al-Shara took his nom de guerre, "Al-Julani," from his family's origins in the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1967. Joining al-Qaeda in Iraq after the U.S. invasion in 2003, Al-Shara rose through the ranks, gaining notoriety for orchestrating attacks on U.S. forces.

After spending five years in Iraqi prisons, Al-Julani was sent to Syria by ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2011 to establish a Syrian branch of the group. However, Al-Julani soon diverged, rejecting Baghdadi’s extremist vision and embarking on a more calculated path of political survival. This shift led to the formation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, breaking ties with both ISIS and later al-Qaeda.

Pragmatism Over Militancy

After the recent successes of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the entry of former jihadist Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who returned to his original name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, the central question remains why al-Shara'a and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham continued while al-Qaeda disintegrated and ISIS disintegrated. The apparent fact seems to be that flexibility and adaptability saved Ahmad al-Sharaa from the fate of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, whose "caliphate" and "state" evaporated due to his limited ability to communicate with the world and his desire to antagonize the world and spread fear against everyone, which led everyone to block against him.

But the ability to adapt, communicate, and build alliances and political capabilities that characterized al-Sharaa and its editorial board made it enter Damascus victoriously. This is a lesson that his fellow jihadists, who have been made more angry than politicians have learned.

The first lesson given by the former jihadist Ahmed al-Sharaa is that it is foolish to antagonize the whole earth and then ask for help from heaven!

Al-Sharaa was able to distinguish itself from other jihadists with its flexible political approach. When ISIS established its caliphate in 2013, the man was fleeing the dark future of ISIS stemming from the obscurantism of the same organization, which is good at "managing savagery" but does not know how to manage civilization. Al-Sharaa chose to separate from ISIS and restored its allegiance to Al-Qaeda, which it described as a "marriage of convenience", a description that reflected al-Sharaa's vision of a world based on interests rather than waiting for heavenly terms.

How was al-Sharaa able to turn the fight into a political project?

Later, in 2016, he completely severed his ties with al-Qaeda and went to establish Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, where he sought to unite the armed opposition factions in Syria and turn his "sacred" jihad, according to al-Qaeda's convictions, into a war on the ground with the laws and rules of land wars, not the jihad of heaven. Al-Sharaa turned away from the cross-border war and was content with what he thought was a war of liberation limited to Syria's borders and Bashar's influence.

Idlib: Al-Julani's Stronghold and the Test of Governance

As other armed groups retreated, Idlib became a center of influence for al-Julani's Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. The city, whose population has doubled due to displacement, has become a stronghold of opposition and a model for the rule of Ahmad al-Shara's comrades. Despite the implementation of Islamic law in Idlib, al-Sharaa has shown political flexibility that has helped it gain local and regional support. In Idlib, militancy remained a feature but declined in degree over time and experience.

Sharia reversed the image, or for accuracy corrected it, and made politics that leads not anger, and pragmatism, not dogma. In a world of bargaining, organizations that are not fluent in bargaining language are disintegrating.

Lessons from Al-Julani’s Strategy

1. Politics Over Dogma: Al-Julani understood that success required prioritizing pragmatism over ideological rigidity.
2. Building Alliances: By forming local and regional partnerships, Al-Julani ensured HTS’s survival and influence.
3. Adaptability: His ability to navigate shifting power dynamics set him apart from more rigid jihadist leaders.

Politics First: Sharia recognized the importance of focusing on political action rather than anger or revenge.

Alliances: He succeeded in building a network of local and regional alliances that made him a key player in the Syrian scene.

Adapting to difficulties: Showed the ability to adapt to changes on the ground, which contributed to its continuity compared to other groups.

Ahmed Al-Shara's developments highlight the importance of resilience in a turbulent environment such as the one Syria is experiencing. While others failed to achieve political or military sustainability, Sharia was able to build a different model that challenged traditional jihadist traditions. His biggest challenge remains how to transform his military successes into long-term political stability.

Al-Sharaa answered the difficult questions, but the most difficult questions remain. The rule of Idlib, which is crowded with homogeneous masses inclined to the province by virtue of the composition of the city and the nature of the displaced to it, differs from the rule of the diversity of the diverse Syrian mosaic in terms of religion, sects, ethnicities, apprehension, and mutual desires for revenge after a civil war that dismantled the fabric of society or exposed its contradictions in the cruelest and bloody forms.

Challenges Ahead

While Al-Julani’s approach allowed HTS to thrive, the future presents significant hurdles. Governing Idlib’s relatively homogeneous population is different from managing a diverse, fractured Syria. Long-term political stability remains elusive as societal rifts, religious diversity, and mutual grievances stemming from the civil war persist.

Conclusion

Ahmed Al-Shara’s evolution from a jihadist militant to a pragmatic leader highlights a broader shift within Salafi jihadism. His ability to adapt politically while maintaining militant influence offers a stark contrast to the failures of al-Qaeda and ISIS. However, whether his strategy can transition from military dominance to sustainable governance remains an unanswered question.

Keywords

Ahmed Al-Shara, Abu Muhammad Al-Julani, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, al-Qaeda, ISIS, Idlib, Syrian revolution, jihadism, political alliances.

Published originally in Arabic at: https://cosmopolitanarabic.blogspot.com/2024/12/blog-post.html