On Saturday, January 4, Hamas released a video of the prisoner Leri Albag. She is a 19-year-old recruit, captured on October 7 from the guard post of Nahal Oz settlement, one of the Gaza perimeter settlements. In the video, the prisoner appeared to lose hope in her government and the army that sent her to her place of service. She was captured while wearing her army uniform.
Albag accused the army of intensifying its military operations, which led to injuring her colleague and endangering her life. This is the same sentiment expressed by all the prisoners who spoke in recorded videos. Despite all the appeals to stop military operations, especially those involving indiscriminate bombings and killings, the IDF did not heed these calls and continued its operations, resulting in the deaths and injuries of even its own captives, many of whom were killed in attempts to free them.
Albag concluded her words addressed to her government: "I realized that our lives are not important to you. I understand that we are your game... We are under crazy bombardment every day... If something happens to me, remember me. Remember my name. Remember this video and write on my grave that all this happened because of the government and the army."
We are facing an unprecedented situation in the history of the operation to free Israeli prisoners and abductees, where the priority is the show of force and the practice of abuse rather than truly freeing the prisoners. It is a change in belief, mentality, and purpose, carrying a surprise that changed perceptions of conflict management.
The Success of October 7 and the Failure of Its Strategies
Yahya Sinwar built a set of hypotheses about the management of Operation October 7. The first hypothesis was based on his personal experience, as Sinwar himself was a Palestinian prisoner released from Israeli occupation prisons in 2011 as part of an exchange for Gilad Shalit, which involved the release of 1,026 Palestinian prisoners, including Sinwar.
The conclusion built by Sinwar was flawed because it was based on an attractive but misleading logical sequence. It was assumed that the kidnapping of one Israeli soldier in a limited operation led to the release of many prisoners, so expanding the process further would inevitably lead to greater success and the release of all prisoners. This conclusion was like a trap that brought everyone together, like butterflies around a fire. There is always a certain level that cannot be exceeded in military success, which matches your affordability. Thus, the October 7 operation became a victim of its excessive success.
The Eighth Decade and the Civil War: Hasty Conclusions About an Incomplete Interaction
The second hypothesis is based on the belief that Israel is in a state of structural and social weakness, and a devastating internal conflict, within what is known as the "curse of the eighth decade." The Israeli crisis escalated in 2023 against the backdrop of the "Reasonableness Act," a law that limits the powers of the Supreme Court in reviewing legislation issued by the Knesset.
This law led to a deep division in Israeli society, with political elites warning that they were on the brink of civil war. The announcement by agencies, elites, and the media that Israel was closer to civil strife than ever before tempted the exploitation of this vulnerability. However, this was premature, as the signs of its results had not yet been shown on the ground. On October 7, the divided Israeli society united, preventing the interaction of civil strife from reaching a real boiling point. In other words, it was rushing to harvest potential loot that did not yet exist.
Israel's Political Isolation?
Sinwar articulated the third hypothesis in 2021: "The resistance will make the occupation in a state of contradiction and clash with the international will, isolating it violently and ending its integration in the region." This prophecy was partially fulfilled but insufficient to isolate Israel from the main sources of power that support it.
Israel has been isolated, but not politically isolated from its sources of strength, and even multiplied them. October 7 showed that Israel is completely intertwined with the world's largest interests. Despite its condemnation in human rights forums and in the Global South (except India, which is ruled by a right-wing government), this did not affect the flow of American and European weapons to Israeli ports and warehouses.
Western bias has been entrenched in actions, not mere words. Western governments encouraged, even implicitly, military or civilian volunteers to fight with Israel, but threatened anyone with their citizenship with lengthy imprisonment if they fought against Israel.
Western officials wept over Israeli deaths but doubted or did not care when talking about Palestinian casualties. Isolation has been achieved at the diplomatic level in the Global South, from South Africa to Chile to Colombia to Brazil. However, the North is ready to completely disregard this and declare that all blood is equal, but some blood is more equal than others. Elected Senators and Congressmen called for striking Gaza with nuclear bombs, while others called for a Western emergency that could abandon its major values to preserve the larger value, which is Israel.
Isolation was achieved at levels unable to influence; the occupation lost its moral reputation and dismantled the myth of the most moral army in the world. However, October 7 was an opportunity to restore Atlantic unity. Officials in Europe and America see Israel as the representative of Western supremacy in the East and the project of modern European colonialism in the post-World War II era.
The Global South supported Gaza with words and diplomatic postures, but the West's support for Israel was with iron, fire, and blood.
Suppression of Pro-Palestine Movements: Exposing the Flaws of Western Democracy
Western countries systematically suppressed the pro-Palestine movement, using laws that exposed the flaws of the Western democratic system, as happened in Germany, which forcibly banned conferences and demonstrations. Some were forcibly dismissed from their jobs by Israel's protection rules.
In an ironic twist, Germany has blocked financial support and halted cooperation projects with Israeli human rights organizations critical of government practices. While Germany lectures governments in the Middle East and North Africa on good governance, democracy, and the right to safely oppose government policies, it silently punishes organizations that criticize Tel Aviv. The message is clear: you are not equal.
Indeed, American universities have curtailed the voice of protest and intimidated students with repressive methods that undermined democratic values. October 7 revealed all this, but it was not enough to isolate the occupation from its sources of power because its relationship with these sources is complex and organic, not a temporary utilitarian relationship.
The world was divided at the beginning of October 7 and entered a phase of shock. However, Israel bet on time and succeeded, turning its massacres into a daily routine that did not attract attention. The global solidarity movement receded, and the massacres became the norm.
The flow of weapons to Israel continued, while the flow of support to the Palestinians faded.
Transformations in Israeli Society: From Rationality to Revenge and Racial Superiority
The hypotheses of Sinwar and his companions were based on outdated data, where rationality governed Israeli decision-making. However, what Sinwar and we failed to notice is that we are facing an entire Israeli society shifting to the right, with almost no left-wing presence. This society adheres to biblical myths about Jewish supremacy, even among the non-religious.
A new national-religious status is emerging from the ruling settlement alliance, strongly represented by Ben Gvir and Smotrich, in addition to the classical nationalists represented by Netanyahu. This alliance is filled with a desire for permanent revenge and the demonstration of Jewish racial superiority, creating a society that thrives on blood and remains in a state of war. If it does not find a war, it will invent one.
Leri Albag summed up the idea when she said that her government and its army do not prioritize her and the rest of the prisoners, nor do they consider the main goal of the war. She understood the logic behind the Gaza war, which seems to be a war of revenge and the establishment of new rules.
These new rules differ from the old ones that Palestinians previously exploited to achieve low-cost deterrence with Israel. The idea that Israel would seek to free its captives and recover the bodies of its fighters at a political price it would acquiesce to has been transformed by the ruling right-wing temperament in Israel. Human lives no longer matter; what matters is the survival of sacred hatred.
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