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Israel's Continued Bombing of Southern Lebanon: A Strategic Dilemma for Hezbollah

Israel's persistent airstrikes on southern Lebanon, including today's intense bombing of areas like Ali al-Taher, the Kfartabneet Heights, Nabatieh al-Fouqa, and Jabal Shaqif, despite months of ceasefire, reveal one of the most perplexing moments in Hezbollah's trajectory since its founding. The silence enveloping the party is not just a tactical choice, but a strategic enigma that warrants analysis on two levels: Is the party betting that the "quiet" will be met with Israeli restraint? Or is this the true result of a dismantling of deterrent capabilities, turning the party into little more than a punching bag in an open arena? First: The "Misjudgment" Ambush The first scenario assumes that Hezbollah consciously chose calm, thinking that absorbing blows would curb Israel's appetite. The belief was that the more they withdrew, the more Israel would quiet down. However, this wager on the "rationality" of the adversary appears to be losing....

The Syrian Conflict: Understanding the Layers of Violence and Sectarianism

 


The ongoing turmoil on the Syrian coast is often discussed with a degree of truth, yet much of the narrative remains biased rather than objective. Many analyses emphasize sectarian divisions and seek to demonize one side while absolving the other, failing to grasp the true complexity of the crisis.

The conflict in Syria cannot be reduced to a simple battle between good and evil, as political perspectives shape perceptions of right and wrong. Instead, Syria faces a multi-dimensional struggle, exacerbated by a critical unresolved question: How can diverse communities coexist despite deep-rooted differences?

1. Sectarianism as a Framework for Violence

Contrary to the conventional portrayal of Syria as a land of diversity and peaceful coexistence, the country's history is one of sectarian dominance. Since the Ottoman era, sectarian violence has not been resolved through reconciliation but rather through the imposition of force.

  • The Ottoman millet system institutionalized religious divisions, legally and geographically segregating communities.
  • The French Mandate further entrenched sectarian identities by dividing Greater Syria into ethno-religious entities.
  • The formation of the Army of the Levant led to minority rule over state institutions, particularly the military and security forces.

Under Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar al-Assad, this system intensified, leading to growing grievances among the Sunni majority, who felt marginalized and oppressed under minority rule.

2. Revenge and the Cycle of Violence

Syria is trapped in a vicious cycle of revenge, where no single party has the authority to impose justice. In the absence of a functioning legal system, those seeking retribution turn to violence as their only recourse.

The old rule prevails:
"The country belongs to those who conquer, and retribution belongs to those who are conquered."

Without a structured reconciliation process, sectarian vengeance will continue to shape the conflict, fueling intergenerational hatred.

3. Jihadist Violence and the Strategy of Terror

Jihadist factions played a pivotal role in the armed struggle against the former Assad regime and they still an active ally in the current ruling regime. Jihadist groups play a critical role in the conflict, driven by the ideology of "purifying the land" of ideological opponents. While some narratives oversimplify their role, these factions operate within a broader Islamist alliance.

A key doctrine guiding jihadist violence is the "Management of Savagery"—a strategy formulated by Abu Bakr al-Naji, advocating extreme terror to instill fear, weaken enemies, and establish an Islamic state.

  • Suicide bombings
  • Field Sharia courts
  • Forced displacement of minorities

These tactics, backed by regional and international actors, transformed Syria into a battleground for competing jihadist projects.

4. The Post-Assad Coalition: A Fragmented Alliance

The collapse of the Assad regime did not herald the end of the conflict but rather introduced new fragmentation within the victorious factions.

The alliance that once fought against the former regime soon splintered into competing factions:

Jihadist factions advocating for the radical transformation of Syrian society through the lens of the management of savagery ideology.

Islamist groups pursuing a political order based on an Islamic framework while engaging with local and regional actors.

Local warlords and militias exploiting power vacuums for personal or economic gain, often switching allegiances to serve their interests.

This fragmentation led to persistent clashes and shifting alliances, ensuring that stability remained elusive even after the downfall of the previous Assad regime.


5.The Former Assad Regime and the Weaponization of Sectarian Identity

The previous Assad regime systematically used sectarian divisions as a tool to maintain its power, fostering an atmosphere of fear and division. This strategy involved:

Promoting a narrative of minority victimhood to justify authoritarian measures and secure support.

Exploiting sectarian divides by pitting communities against one another, preventing a unified opposition.

Utilizing security forces and allied militias to suppress opposition through violent crackdowns and mass arrests.

This legacy of sectarian manipulation continues to haunt Syria’s present and threatens to destabilize any potential post-Assad governance.


The Riddle of Syria’s Future: A Sphinx Without an Oedipus

The Syrian crisis is not merely a new chapter of conflict; it is an extension of a long history of strife, each time manifesting in a different form. It mirrors the ancient Riddle of the Sphinx, where travelers had to answer correctly or be devoured.

Syria, too, faces its own Sphinx, posing an impossible question: Can a real solution emerge to rescue the country from this vortex of destruction? Yet unlike Oedipus, who unraveled the Sphinx’s mystery and brought salvation to Thebes, no hero has appeared with an answer. Until one does, Syria remains trapped—held hostage by its own endless cycle of conflict.

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